by Ian Lowe
Japanese shortstop Takashi Toritani has been one of the under the radar free agents this offseason, partially because he will turn thirty-four years old in what could be his first Major League season. Unlike many Nippon Professional Baseball players, Toritani is currently a free agent and can leave the Hanshin Tigers and NPB without having to go through the posting fee process, which is a plus. Toritani is publically stating that he will only join Major League Baseball if he is a full-time player on a club there. The real issue with that is what was mentioned earlier: he will be a thirty-four year old shortstop in 2015.
Let us discuss his defense and translation to a possible Major League Baseball shortstop spot before anything else. Toritani is one of the better shortstops in Nippon Professional Baseball and has been for the past five or so years. He has relatively nice instincts at the position (knowing when to play the ball, first step, reading the baserunners). I am not quite sure how noticeable it is, but comparing 2011/2012 footage to 2014 games shows a slight loss of speed/agility defensively at the position. It is hard to quantifiable state how much speed/agility has been lost, but it is definitely visible. The arm can still work at the position with regards to range, although I would call it average at best. All of this points to a maybe with regards to having the ability to play the position in 2015 in Major League Baseball. With that said though, the history of infielders transitioning from Nippon Professional Baseball to Major League Baseball is fairly poor. Someone like Tsuyoshi Nishioka immediately springs to mind in this case. Nishioka could not handle the speed of the game and performed disappointingly in his short stint with the Minnesota Twins in 2011 and 2012.
With that said, Toritani is probably a slightly better fielder at this point than Nishioka was during his final NPB stint before heading to the Twins in 2010. I am not sure how much that really matters in this discussion, though. It took quite some time for Toritani to adjust at the NPB level and I wonder if that could be the case with him in Major League Baseball, defensively-speaking. At his age, he does not have multiple years to adjust to the Major League shortstop position. With that, along with an average arm, declining speed, and an overall slight decline defensively which I see continuing as he ages, he will likely be a second baseman if he were to sign with a Major League club.
Toritani Defense Compilation 2011-2012
Toritani Defense Compilation in 2013
Toritani Defense Compilation in 2014
The difference between second base and shortstop is considerable when looking at offense. The offense of an average shortstop is below-average at second base. Just a pure statistical comparison (I know) between Toritani, Nishioka, and Munenori Kawasaki, does not give the greatest hope for Toritani’s offense to be sustained at the Major League level. With that said, estimating how he will transition to Major League Baseball offensively is partially tool set-based and swing mechanics-based along with looking at how former Nippon Professional Baseball players have done offensively in MLB.
Toritani’s swing itself is off-balance, with his left foot (keep in mind that he is a left-handed batter) considerably above his right foot, vertically-speaking in the batter’s box. This results in many pulled balls to the right if they are thrown inside the strike zone.
Toritani Home Run Compilation (All to the Right Side)
It is worth noting that spray charts are not publicly available for NPB players. Another factor that may contribute to this, but is mainly a concern with regards to power is how wide of a step he takes.
Toritani’s Wide Step
With a player at his age, I am not too optimistic about being able to correct these tendencies. While different, it has been largely effective for him in NPB, but I have some concerns. A good amount of his quality contact (i.e. base hits), along with what appears to be the majority of his home runs come off fastballs. You see him swinging wildly at a slider here, for example.
Toritani Faces a Slider
Can he succeed against Major League-level breaking balls? At best, I am uncertain. Perhaps the nicest thing to be said about his offense against breaking balls, or really all pitches, is that he is a fairly patient hitter. He can take some really bad swings, but in general, Toritani tries to hold off on sliders or pitches outside the zone in general.
Toritani Plate Patience
Toritani Plate Patience
Things do not work out for him in the second video, but he shows no urgency to swing or be overly aggressive after being down in the count 1-2.
Toritani has been fairly successful despite the ball regulation changes in 2011, which hurt offense considerably, maintaining a decent batting average and drawing a skyrocketing amount of walks. Although he hit just .282 in 2013 in 643 plate appearances, Toritani ended the year with an on-base percentage of .402, drawing 104 walks, one ahead of the dominating Wladimir Balentien. If not for this level of patience, I would say his goose is cooked with regards to transferring over to Major League Baseball. It would be an absolute shock to see him post an OPS north of .720 in Major League Baseball, which is not encouraging. With power that I have doubts on (single digit home run totals in three of the last four years), aging, and potentially trouble against certain types of pitches, it, meaning his offense, probably is just not going to translate in 2015.
He does have some speed and baserunning positives, but in the grand scheme of things (playing ability, age, etc.), they are marginal positives at best.
Some might discuss the fact that Toritani has been an iron man of sorts, seeing 600 plate appearances in nine of ten seasons (the other, 2011, saw 590 plate appearances for Toritani). Father time is starting to take its toll on Toritani, as he was plagued by back pain and a right knee pain during the 2014 season. Due to the small amount of games, one might read into it as not being severe or what have you, but an aging shortstop with knee pain is certainly not good news.
Two Major League Baseball teams are really in contention for Takashi Toritani: the Toronto Blue Jays and the San Diego Padres. The Padres would use him at shortstop, where they currently have a deficiency at the position with Clint Barmes possibly getting the starting job. With the diminishing defensive value and likely low hitting value Toritani would bring, it is probably not the right move to bring him in as a full-time shortstop. Realistically, I would probably try him over Barmes for the 2015 season, but I am not sure what type of commitment he wants in terms of years and money.
Also in play are the Toronto Blue Jays. In Toronto, Toritani would likely be the starting full-time second baseman, a position that he could probably play at an average-to-above-average level defensively. With Ryan Goins possibly starting at second base, Toritani is not a lesser option in terms of offense either. He would not light the world on fire in Toronto, but he could very well maintain the starting second base job, which interests him.
No deals have formally been offered, but talks are heating up, so I would expect some decision making soon from all parties involved. I really do not see this experiment of sorts working out in the long-term. Toritani has had a stellar career with the Hanshin Tigers and his best option, if he wishes to continue to play full-time at an above-average level, would probably be to return to the NPB club rather than test his hand at MLB at what feels like an advanced age for a middle infielder.
Japanese shortstop Takashi Toritani has been one of the under the radar free agents this offseason, partially because he will turn thirty-four years old in what could be his first Major League season. Unlike many Nippon Professional Baseball players, Toritani is currently a free agent and can leave the Hanshin Tigers and NPB without having to go through the posting fee process, which is a plus. Toritani is publically stating that he will only join Major League Baseball if he is a full-time player on a club there. The real issue with that is what was mentioned earlier: he will be a thirty-four year old shortstop in 2015.
Let us discuss his defense and translation to a possible Major League Baseball shortstop spot before anything else. Toritani is one of the better shortstops in Nippon Professional Baseball and has been for the past five or so years. He has relatively nice instincts at the position (knowing when to play the ball, first step, reading the baserunners). I am not quite sure how noticeable it is, but comparing 2011/2012 footage to 2014 games shows a slight loss of speed/agility defensively at the position. It is hard to quantifiable state how much speed/agility has been lost, but it is definitely visible. The arm can still work at the position with regards to range, although I would call it average at best. All of this points to a maybe with regards to having the ability to play the position in 2015 in Major League Baseball. With that said though, the history of infielders transitioning from Nippon Professional Baseball to Major League Baseball is fairly poor. Someone like Tsuyoshi Nishioka immediately springs to mind in this case. Nishioka could not handle the speed of the game and performed disappointingly in his short stint with the Minnesota Twins in 2011 and 2012.
With that said, Toritani is probably a slightly better fielder at this point than Nishioka was during his final NPB stint before heading to the Twins in 2010. I am not sure how much that really matters in this discussion, though. It took quite some time for Toritani to adjust at the NPB level and I wonder if that could be the case with him in Major League Baseball, defensively-speaking. At his age, he does not have multiple years to adjust to the Major League shortstop position. With that, along with an average arm, declining speed, and an overall slight decline defensively which I see continuing as he ages, he will likely be a second baseman if he were to sign with a Major League club.
The difference between second base and shortstop is considerable when looking at offense. The offense of an average shortstop is below-average at second base. Just a pure statistical comparison (I know) between Toritani, Nishioka, and Munenori Kawasaki, does not give the greatest hope for Toritani’s offense to be sustained at the Major League level. With that said, estimating how he will transition to Major League Baseball offensively is partially tool set-based and swing mechanics-based along with looking at how former Nippon Professional Baseball players have done offensively in MLB.
Toritani’s swing itself is off-balance, with his left foot (keep in mind that he is a left-handed batter) considerably above his right foot, vertically-speaking in the batter’s box. This results in many pulled balls to the right if they are thrown inside the strike zone.
It is worth noting that spray charts are not publicly available for NPB players. Another factor that may contribute to this, but is mainly a concern with regards to power is how wide of a step he takes.
With a player at his age, I am not too optimistic about being able to correct these tendencies. While different, it has been largely effective for him in NPB, but I have some concerns. A good amount of his quality contact (i.e. base hits), along with what appears to be the majority of his home runs come off fastballs. You see him swinging wildly at a slider here, for example.
Can he succeed against Major League-level breaking balls? At best, I am uncertain. Perhaps the nicest thing to be said about his offense against breaking balls, or really all pitches, is that he is a fairly patient hitter. He can take some really bad swings, but in general, Toritani tries to hold off on sliders or pitches outside the zone in general.
Things do not work out for him in the second video, but he shows no urgency to swing or be overly aggressive after being down in the count 1-2.
Toritani has been fairly successful despite the ball regulation changes in 2011, which hurt offense considerably, maintaining a decent batting average and drawing a skyrocketing amount of walks. Although he hit just .282 in 2013 in 643 plate appearances, Toritani ended the year with an on-base percentage of .402, drawing 104 walks, one ahead of the dominating Wladimir Balentien. If not for this level of patience, I would say his goose is cooked with regards to transferring over to Major League Baseball. It would be an absolute shock to see him post an OPS north of .720 in Major League Baseball, which is not encouraging. With power that I have doubts on (single digit home run totals in three of the last four years), aging, and potentially trouble against certain types of pitches, it, meaning his offense, probably is just not going to translate in 2015.
He does have some speed and baserunning positives, but in the grand scheme of things (playing ability, age, etc.), they are marginal positives at best.
Some might discuss the fact that Toritani has been an iron man of sorts, seeing 600 plate appearances in nine of ten seasons (the other, 2011, saw 590 plate appearances for Toritani). Father time is starting to take its toll on Toritani, as he was plagued by back pain and a right knee pain during the 2014 season. Due to the small amount of games, one might read into it as not being severe or what have you, but an aging shortstop with knee pain is certainly not good news.
Two Major League Baseball teams are really in contention for Takashi Toritani: the Toronto Blue Jays and the San Diego Padres. The Padres would use him at shortstop, where they currently have a deficiency at the position with Clint Barmes possibly getting the starting job. With the diminishing defensive value and likely low hitting value Toritani would bring, it is probably not the right move to bring him in as a full-time shortstop. Realistically, I would probably try him over Barmes for the 2015 season, but I am not sure what type of commitment he wants in terms of years and money.
Also in play are the Toronto Blue Jays. In Toronto, Toritani would likely be the starting full-time second baseman, a position that he could probably play at an average-to-above-average level defensively. With Ryan Goins possibly starting at second base, Toritani is not a lesser option in terms of offense either. He would not light the world on fire in Toronto, but he could very well maintain the starting second base job, which interests him.
No deals have formally been offered, but talks are heating up, so I would expect some decision making soon from all parties involved. I really do not see this experiment of sorts working out in the long-term. Toritani has had a stellar career with the Hanshin Tigers and his best option, if he wishes to continue to play full-time at an above-average level, would probably be to return to the NPB club rather than test his hand at MLB at what feels like an advanced age for a middle infielder.
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